WASHINGTON D.C. – July 1, 2025 – The halls of power in Washington are abuzz with a palpable sense of anticipation. Following its decisive passage in the Senate today, the landmark “One Big Beautiful Bill” (OBBB) is poised to clear the House of Representatives within days and receive President Trump’s signature shortly thereafter. This legislative triumph, combined with a series of highly favorable macroeconomic shifts, is set to unleash an unprecedented era of economic acceleration, fulfilling the ambitious vision championed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
Secretary Bessent has been a vocal proponent of a revitalized American economy, famously outlining his “3-3-3 plan” which targets 3% GDP growth, 3% deficit reduction, and 3 million additional barrels of oil production daily. His prediction that the U.S. economy would grow “faster than 3%” by mid-2025 was met with both optimism and skepticism, particularly given more modest forecasts from other analysts. However, with the OBBB’s imminent enactment and a confluence of supportive market conditions, Bessent’s ambitious forecast appears increasingly within reach, promising a profound transformation for the nation’s economic landscape and a significant uplift for the S&P 500.
The Foundation of Prosperity: Key Assumptions Driving This Outlook
This optimistic outlook is built upon several critical assumptions, which collectively paint a picture of robust and sustained growth:
- Legislative Certainty: The One Big Beautiful Bill is assumed to pass the House and be signed into law by President Trump within the coming days, ensuring its comprehensive provisions take immediate effect.
- Tariff Resolution: All existing and potential tariffs are assumed to be settled by July 2025, with any unannounced tariffs remaining moderate at worst. This creates a stable and predictable trade environment, crucial for business confidence and investment.
- Monetary Easing: The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 0.75% by the end of 2025, providing a significant boost to borrowing and investment across the economy.
- Yield Compression: The 10-year Treasury yield is projected to fall to at least 3.8% by the end of 2025, further reducing long-term borrowing costs for corporations and consumers.
- Accelerated GDP Growth: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s vision of U.S. GDP rapidly accelerating to exceed 3% by mid-2025 and sustaining this robust pace through 2026 is assumed to fully materialize.
These assumptions, while ambitious, lay the groundwork for a powerful economic resurgence, driven by strategic policy and favorable market dynamics.
Policy Pillars: Fueling the “Blue-Collar BOOM”
At the heart of the One Big Beautiful Bill’s transformative power are its targeted incentives for domestic investment and manufacturing, particularly through enhanced accelerated depreciation provisions and direct on-shoring initiatives. These policies are designed to invigorate the supply side of the economy, boosting productive capacity and fostering what the administration has termed a “Blue-Collar BOOM”.
Accelerated Depreciation: A Catalyst for Corporate Investment
Accelerated depreciation is a potent fiscal tool that significantly reduces the present value of investment costs for businesses. Unlike traditional depreciation methods, which spread deductions over an asset’s useful life, accelerated depreciation allows companies to deduct new capital purchases from their taxable income more quickly. This immediate deduction directly enhances a company’s cash flow and reduces its tax liabilities in the early years of an asset’s useful life, freeing up capital for reinvestment and expansion.
The OBBB specifically targets domestic manufacturing, delivering “100% expensing for new domestic factories”. This “full expensing” provision permits the immediate deduction of the entire cost of building new manufacturing, production, or refining facilities. This dramatically reduces the Effective Marginal Tax Rates (EMTRs) for structures, making domestic investment significantly more attractive and financially viable. Empirical evidence supports the efficacy of such policies; state adoption of federal accelerated depreciation has been shown to increase investment by 4.7% , with bonus depreciation increasing eligible capital investment by 10% to 16%. Small firms, which constitute the majority of U.S. manufacturing enterprises , are particularly poised to benefit from the doubled immediate small business expensing.
This policy design is poised to drive significant capital deepening—an increase in physical machinery per worker—a fundamental driver of long-run productivity growth. The immediate financial advantage for companies is substantial, as illustrated in the table below, which compares a hypothetical $1,000,000 capital investment under standard depreciation versus the OBBB’s 100% immediate expensing.
Table 1: Illustrative Cash Flow Benefits of Accelerated Depreciation vs. Standard Depreciation (Hypothetical $1,000,000 Capital Investment, 21% Corporate Tax Rate)
| Year | MACRS (5-year) Depreciation | Taxable Income Reduction (MACRS) | Tax Savings (MACRS) | OBBB 100% Expensing Depreciation | Taxable Income Reduction (OBBB) | Tax Savings (OBBB) | Cumulative Tax Savings (OBBB) |
| 1 | $200,000 | $200,000 | $42,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $210,000 | $210,000 |
| 2 | $320,000 | $320,000 | $67,200 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $210,000 |
| 3 | $192,000 | $192,000 | $40,320 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $210,000 |
| 4 | $115,200 | $115,200 | $24,192 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $210,000 |
| 5 | $115,200 | $115,200 | $24,192 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $210,000 |
| 6 | $57,600 | $57,600 | $12,096 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $210,000 |
| Total | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $210,000 | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | $210,000 | $210,000 |
Note: MACRS depreciation schedule is illustrative for a 5-year asset. 100% expensing allows the full deduction in Year 1.
On-shoring Initiatives: Revitalizing Domestic Manufacturing
The OBBB is explicitly designed to “protect American jobs” and provide strong incentives for companies to “manufacture in the USA” and “keep jobs in America”. This legislative thrust aims to restore America’s economic strength through a renewed focus on domestic production. The bill’s provisions, particularly the 100% expensing for new domestic factories, are expected to directly spur the construction and expansion of manufacturing facilities across the nation. This initiative is anticipated to lead to a “Blue-Collar BOOM” , with early indicators and anecdotal evidence from businesses already suggesting plans to double manufacturing space and create new jobs domestically.
U.S. manufacturing is a substantial economic engine, contributing $2.94 trillion annually to the U.S. economy as of Q4 2024 and accounting for 9.9% of total value-added output. The sector boasts a significant multiplier effect: for every $1.00 spent in manufacturing, there is a total impact of $2.64 on the overall U.S. economy. Furthermore, for every one worker directly employed in manufacturing, an additional 4.8 workers are supported across the broader U.S. economy through indirect and induced impacts. Analysis by the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that restoring growth and competitiveness in key manufacturing industries could boost U.S. GDP by more than 15% over the remainder of the current decade and add up to 1.5 million jobs, particularly among middle-skill workers.
Beyond immediate economic benefits, the on-shoring push carries profound strategic implications. Strengthening the U.S. manufacturing sector is directly linked to addressing persistent supply chain issues and enhancing global competitiveness. By bringing critical production back to the U.S., the policy aims to reduce reliance on vulnerable foreign supply chains, thereby enhancing national security and economic stability. This increased domestic resilience will not only mitigate future disruptions but also strengthen the U.S.’s position in global trade and potentially attract further foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing.
Table 2: Projected Contribution of Manufacturing to U.S. GDP and Employment Growth (2025-2026)
| Metric | Baseline (Q4 2024) | Projected Increase (2025) | Projected Increase (2026) | Total Projected (End 2026) |
| Manufacturing Value-Added | $2.94 trillion | +$150-200 billion | +$180-230 billion | ~$3.27 – $3.37 trillion |
| Share of U.S. GDP | 9.9% | +0.5-0.7 percentage pts | +0.6-0.8 percentage pts | ~11.0 – 11.4% |
| Direct Manufacturing Jobs | 12 million | +300,000-400,000 | +300,000-400,000 | ~12.6 – 12.8 million |
| Total Jobs (incl. indirect) | 57.6 million (12M * 4.8) | +1.44M – 1.92M | +1.44M – 1.92M | ~60.5 – 61.4 million |
| Economic Multiplier | $2.64 per $1 spent | Consistent | Consistent | Consistent |
Note: Projections for 2025-2026 are illustrative, based on applying a portion of the “more than 15% GDP boost” and “1.5 million jobs” over the decade to the two-year forecast period. The total jobs include the 4.8x multiplier effect.
Macroeconomic Tailwinds: A Perfect Storm for Growth
The impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill is significantly amplified by the assumed favorable monetary and trade environments, creating powerful macroeconomic tailwinds that support and accelerate the policy’s intended outcomes.
Monetary Policy and Treasury Yields: Easing Financial Conditions
The explicit assumption of the Federal Reserve lowering its target rate by 0.75% by year-end 2025 and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to at least 3.8% signifies a substantial easing of financial conditions across the economy. Lower central bank rates directly translate to cheaper borrowing for both consumers and businesses, thereby encouraging increased spending and investment. The 10-year Treasury yield is a critical benchmark, influencing a wide array of private sector borrowing costs, including corporate bonds, home mortgages, and other long-term loans. Its assumed decline directly translates to lower financing costs throughout the economy, reducing the burden of debt service.
For businesses, these lower borrowing costs significantly reduce the overall cost of capital, making new investments—particularly the large-scale capital expenditures incentivized by the OBBB’s accelerated depreciation provisions—even more financially attractive and feasible. This creates a powerful dual incentive for domestic investment, combining tax advantages with reduced financing expenses. For consumers, lower rates on major loans, such as mortgages and auto loans, reduce their debt service burdens, effectively freeing up disposable income. This stimulus to consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP , further fuels overall economic activity and supports corporate revenues. The “ability to spend” measure, which factors in payrolls and wages, is already increasing at a robust 5.0% , indicating underlying consumer strength that will be amplified by these lower rates.
Table 3: Impact of Lower Interest Rates on Key Economic and Corporate Metrics (Illustrative)
| Metric | Current (Illustrative) | Projected (End 2025) | Impact/Implication |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | ~4.4% | 3.8% | Benchmark for long-term borrowing costs declines. |
| Aaa Corporate Bond Yield | ~5.0-5.5% | ~4.4-4.9% | Lower cost of corporate debt, improving profitability and investment capacity. |
| 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate | ~7.0-7.5% | ~6.4-6.9% | Reduced housing costs, freeing up consumer disposable income. |
| Corporate Investment (CapEx) | Baseline Investment | Significant Increase | Dual incentive from lower tax burden (AD) and lower financing costs. |
| Consumer Spending | Baseline Growth | Accelerated Growth | Increased disposable income from lower debt service and tax cuts. |
Note: Illustrative figures based on assumed correlation with 10-year Treasury yield. Actual figures may vary.
Trade Policy: Settled Tariffs and Market Stability
The assumption that tariffs are settled by July 2025 and remain moderate at worst implies a stable and predictable trade environment, effectively averting the uncertainty and disruption that escalating trade wars can cause. Analysis from UBS suggests that the Trump administration’s “escalate-to-deescalate” approach means the effective tariff rate is likely to remain similar to current levels, around 15%. While this level may still represent a headwind to growth and a modest boost to inflation, it is deemed “unlikely to trigger a recession” given the resilience of the U.S. consumer and the adaptability of global supply chains.
The administration’s incentive to maintain economic growth, particularly to manage the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio, implies that trade policies or threats that risk a recession are likely to be negotiated lower. This aligns with Treasury Secretary Bessent’s pledge to announce “several large trade deals” , which would further solidify trade relations and foster stability. A settled and predictable tariff environment removes a significant source of uncertainty for businesses, crucial for clearer long-term planning, supply chain restructuring, and investment decisions, thereby complementing the on-shoring drive by providing a predictable framework for domestic production and international trade.
Rapid GDP Acceleration: Realizing Scott Bessent’s Vision
The entire economic and market outlook is fundamentally predicated on the explicit assumption that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s forecast of the U.S. economy growing “faster than 3%” by mid-2025 fully materializes and is sustained through 2026. This ambitious target forms a cornerstone of his “3-3-3 plan,” which emphasizes deregulation, deficit reduction, and increased energy production. This represents a significant and positive departure from more modest baseline projections for U.S. GDP growth.
The interplay of multiple reinforcing factors is expected to drive this rapid acceleration. First, a substantial investment surge is anticipated. Accelerated depreciation provisions and significantly lower corporate borrowing costs directly stimulate a surge in corporate capital expenditures, particularly within the manufacturing sector. This robust business investment is a primary and consistent driver of GDP growth. Second, the
on-shoring multiplier effect will be profound. The revitalization of domestic manufacturing, fueled by OBBB incentives, creates a powerful ripple effect throughout the economy. Every dollar spent in manufacturing generates $2.64 in total economic impact, and each manufacturing job supports nearly five additional jobs. This broad-based economic activity significantly contributes to overall GDP expansion. Third,
consumer demand is expected to provide a substantial tailwind. The “largest middle- and working-class tax cut in U.S. history” , combined with expanding payrolls and wages and lower borrowing costs for consumers , will significantly boost disposable income and consumer spending. As consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP , this provides a critical foundation for growth. Finally, Bessent’s emphasis on
deregulation and the broader pro-growth policy environment instilled by the OBBB fosters heightened business confidence, encouraging further investment, innovation, and expansion.
For Bessent’s ambitious growth vision to materialize despite significant demographic challenges, the economic acceleration must be overwhelmingly driven by productivity gains and capital deepening. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects subdued labor force growth at just 0.4-0.5% annually through 2032 due to an aging population and declining birth rates. These factors typically limit GDP growth to below 2% according to BLS and Wall Street projections. However, the OBBB’s accelerated depreciation and on-shoring initiatives are precisely designed to significantly increase capital investment per worker and foster innovation. The bill’s focus on “cleaning out underbrush and nonsense so it’s easier to build things” also points to regulatory streamlining that could boost efficiency and productivity across sectors. This effectively counteracts the slower labor force growth and enables higher overall GDP growth, representing a fundamental shift in the drivers of U.S. economic expansion.
S&P 500 Performance: Earnings and Valuation Outlook (2025-2026)
The confluence of policy-driven economic growth and favorable financial conditions sets the stage for robust S&P 500 performance, driven by both fundamental earnings expansion and valuation multiple re-rating.
Corporate Earnings Growth: The Direct Link to Policy
Accelerated depreciation directly enhances corporate profitability by reducing taxable income and improving cash flow. This immediate tax benefit translates into higher reported net income. Morgan Stanley analysis, by adjusting for certain investments in a manner analogous to how accelerated depreciation impacts reported earnings, found that S&P 500 EBITDA margin and operating profit margin rose 1.5 percentage points, and net income was nearly 12% higher than reported. This indicates a significant accounting-driven boost to earnings per share (EPS).
Beyond these accounting benefits, there is a strong and well-documented historical correlation between U.S. GDP growth and corporate earnings. Data from the Federal Reserve indicates that, since 1948, a 1% increase in real GDP growth has translated to approximately a 6% increase in S&P 500 earnings on average. Given the foundational assumption of Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 3%+ GDP growth through 2025 and 2026, this historical relationship implies a significant tailwind for S&P 500 earnings, potentially leading to sustained double-digit earnings growth. This robust top-line growth, combined with the tax benefits from accelerated depreciation, will drive substantial corporate profitability.
Valuation Expansion: Driven by Lower Rates and Optimism
The assumed decline in the Federal Reserve’s target rate and the fall of the 10-year Treasury yield to 3.8% will significantly impact equity valuations. Lower interest rates reduce the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings and cash flows, thereby increasing the present value of those earnings and supporting higher equity valuations. This makes equities relatively more attractive compared to fixed-income investments, as the yield on bonds becomes less competitive.
The narrative of rapid GDP acceleration, a “Blue-Collar BOOM,” and “historic prosperity” will foster robust investor confidence and positive market sentiment. This optimism, combined with the pro-growth policies and strong earnings outlook, can lead to multiple expansion (higher Price-to-Earnings ratios), even from currently elevated levels where the S&P 500 trades above its historical average. The robust 5.0% increase in the “ability to spend” measure further underscores the fundamental strength underpinning consumer demand and, consequently, corporate revenues.
S&P 500 Best Guess: A Bullish Trajectory
Based on these highly favorable conditions and historical economic relationships, our analysis projects a significant uplift for the S&P 500. Wall Street analysts currently project S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) at $268.94 for 2025. However, this estimate is likely based on more modest GDP growth forecasts, such as S&P Global’s 1.3% for 2025. With Treasury Secretary Bessent’s vision of GDP growth “faster than 3%” (let’s assume an average of 3.25% for calculation purposes) , this represents an additional 1.95% GDP growth compared to the more conservative forecasts (3.25% – 1.3% = 1.95%). Given the historical correlation where a 1% increase in real GDP growth translates to approximately a 6% increase in S&P 500 earnings , this additional GDP growth could lead to an extra 11.7% EPS growth (1.95% * 6 = 11.7%).
Applying this additional growth to Wall Street’s current 2025 EPS estimate, we project a revised 2025 EPS of approximately $268.94 * (1 + 0.117) = $300.44. Assuming this accelerated growth continues, the 2026 EPS could reach approximately $300.44 * (1 + 0.117) = $335.59.
The S&P 500 currently trades at approximately 22.43 times forward earnings, which is above its historical average. However, the environment of lower interest rates , robust economic growth, and strong investor confidence is expected to support, and potentially expand, this multiple. Assuming the S&P 500 maintains a forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) multiple of approximately 23.5x by the end of 2025 and expands to 24.5x by the end of 2026, reflecting sustained optimism and lower interest rates, we project the S&P 500 could reach:
- End of 2025: Approximately 7,050 – 7,100 (based on $300.44 EPS * 23.5 P/E)
- End of 2026: Approximately 8,200 – 8,250 (based on $335.59 EPS * 24.5 P/E)
These projections underscore a highly bullish trajectory for the U.S. equity market, driven by fundamental economic strength and supportive financial conditions.
Sectoral and Industry Beneficiaries
The OBBB’s targeted policies and the resulting economic environment are expected to create distinct winners across the S&P 500:
- Manufacturing and Industrials: These sectors are direct and primary beneficiaries of the accelerated depreciation for new factories and the broader on-shoring incentives. Companies involved in capital equipment, industrial machinery, factory construction, and related services will see significantly increased demand as domestic production capacity expands.
- Technology (Hardware/Automation): As manufacturing on-shores and seeks to enhance productivity to offset potential labor cost increases , there will be a surge in investment in automation, robotics, artificial intelligence integration, and other advanced manufacturing technologies. This will directly benefit technology companies providing these solutions.
- Materials and Energy: Increased domestic production and construction activity will drive robust demand for raw materials. The OBBB’s focus on “unleashing American energy” suggests a highly favorable environment for the energy sector, potentially leading to increased capital expenditures and production.
- Small-Cap Companies: Small firms are poised for significant gains. They benefit disproportionately from the doubled Section 179 expensing and respond more significantly to bonus depreciation. Furthermore, lower interest rates will particularly benefit smaller businesses, which are often more reliant on borrowing for growth. This suggests that small-cap exposure, which has been a detriment for some time, will become a primary catalyst for gains in the years ahead.
- Consumer Discretionary: The “largest middle- and working-class tax cut in U.S. history” , combined with expanding payrolls and wages and lower borrowing costs for consumers , will significantly boost disposable income and consumer spending. This will directly benefit companies in the consumer discretionary sector.
Overall Economic Impact: A Structural Shift Towards Prosperity
The combination of the One Big Beautiful Bill’s transformative policies, highly supportive monetary easing, and a stable, growth-oriented trade environment creates a robust foundation for rapid U.S. economic acceleration through 2025 and 2026. This represents a significant and anticipated shift in the nation’s economic trajectory.
The OBBB, with its core focus on accelerated depreciation and on-shoring, acts as a potent supply-side stimulus, directly boosting productive capacity and corporate investment. This is synergistically reinforced by an accommodating monetary policy environment—lower Federal Reserve rates and falling Treasury yields—which dramatically reduces the cost of capital for businesses and enhances consumer purchasing power. A settled, moderate trade policy further de-risks the economic landscape, fostering predictability and confidence among businesses. The combined effect of these forces creates a powerful positive feedback loop, propelling economic expansion.
Projected Trajectory for Key Economic Indicators:
- GDP: The U.S. economy is projected to achieve rapid acceleration to above 3% annual growth by late-2025, sustained through 2026, in direct alignment with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s ambitious vision. This trajectory would represent a significant and positive departure from previous modest growth projections.
- Investment: A substantial surge in domestic corporate capital expenditures is expected, particularly within the manufacturing sector. This will be driven by the dual incentives of enhanced tax benefits from accelerated depreciation and significantly lower borrowing costs. This robust business investment will be a primary and consistent contributor to GDP growth.
- Employment: While baseline projections anticipate subdued labor force growth due to demographic trends , the on-shoring trend is expected to significantly counter this, potentially adding up to 1.5 million jobs, particularly middle-skill positions. This will help to recalibrate the U.S. labor market, fostering a “Blue-Collar BOOM” and potentially leading to tighter labor markets in key manufacturing and related sectors.
- Inflation: Although tariffs can exert inflationary pressure , the assumption of “settled” and “moderate” tariffs, combined with the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, implies that overall inflation will be managed effectively or even fall more quickly than anticipated. This would further enhance consumer purchasing power. Additionally, increased domestic production resulting from on-shoring could alleviate some supply-side inflationary pressures, contributing to price stability.
- Productivity: The significant capital deepening resulting from the accelerated depreciation and on-shoring investment is expected to reverse the recent stagnation in manufacturing productivity. This renewed focus on capital investment and efficiency gains will drive overall productivity improvements for the broader U.S. economy , enabling sustained growth despite demographic headwinds.
This scenario represents a fundamental structural shift in the U.S. economic paradigm. Long-term trends of slowing labor force growth, a consistent decline in manufacturing employment share, and pronounced stagnation in manufacturing productivity have characterized the U.S. economy. The OBBB’s success, coupled with Bessent’s rapid GDP growth forecast and the intense focus on on-shoring, implies a direct reversal or significant counteraction of these entrenched trends. Instead of relying predominantly on services or consumption, the OBBB aims to re-emphasize and revitalize the nation’s productive capacity and capital investment. If successful, this could lead to a sustained period of higher-than-expected growth by directly addressing underlying structural issues such as low capital investment, declining manufacturing competitiveness, and supply chain vulnerabilities, rather than merely addressing cyclical fluctuations. This is truly a “generational opportunity to restore America’s economic strength” , moving beyond short-term fixes to foster long-term, sustainable prosperity.
Conclusion and Strategic Implications
The confluence of the One Big Beautiful Bill’s transformative policies, highly supportive monetary easing, and a stable trade environment creates a robust foundation for rapid U.S. economic acceleration through 2025 and 2026. This environment is highly conducive to strong corporate earnings and further S&P 500 appreciation, signaling a new era of domestic economic dynamism.
The U.S. economy is poised for a period of rapid and sustained growth, driven by policy-induced investment and a revitalized manufacturing sector. This will translate into significant corporate profitability and a bullish outlook for the S&P 500, with earnings growth and valuation expansion providing a powerful tailwind.
For investors and businesses, several key strategic implications emerge:
- Strategic Investment Focus: Companies should aggressively prioritize domestic capital expenditures to fully leverage the accelerated depreciation benefits and actively participate in the burgeoning on-shoring boom. This strategic alignment with policy incentives represents a critical competitive advantage.
- Sectoral Opportunities: Investors should consider overweighting sectors directly benefiting from manufacturing revitalization. This includes industrials, materials, technology (especially automation and advanced manufacturing solutions), and small-cap companies. The catalysts for small-cap gains are particularly strong in this environment.
- Earnings-Driven Performance: Focus on companies demonstrating strong underlying operational growth, which will be amplified by the accounting benefits derived from accelerated depreciation. Scrutinize profit margins as a key differentiator for stock performance.
- Long-Term Confidence: The policy framework aims to foster long-term economic stability and global competitiveness, encouraging sustained investment beyond the immediate horizon. Businesses should factor this enhanced predictability into their strategic planning, as it provides the certainty needed to invest and grow.
Businesses should fundamentally reassess their supply chain strategies to increase domestic resilience and capitalize on the incentives for U.S. production. Investors should recalibrate their portfolios to capture the significant growth opportunities arising from the revitalized manufacturing sector and the broader, rapidly expanding U.S. economy. The success of this policy framework hinges on continued political stability and consistent implementation, which will reinforce the predictability essential for sustained investment and growth.
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